Friday, February 26, 2016

The Utter Meaninglessness of 2016

Hillary vs Bernie
AKA "The Self-Important Pantsuit vs The Blind Socialist Grandpa"

Barring some bombshell legal conviction, Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic Party presidential nomination. Bernie Sanders has no path to victory that makes any sense at this point. The Clinton faithful, the Party establishment, radical feminists, and the vast majority of black Democrats have allied themselves with Ms. Clinton's campaign. And while criminal charges aren't entirely impossible, the chance that such charges would arise prior to the general election is highly unlikely. While I'm not the biggest fan of Mr. Sanders, I will most likely vote for him in Kentucky's primary election in May. My gut tells me that the nomination will be decided long before that.

Chance of Clinton Victory: 94%

Trump vs The GOP

Donald Trump, idiotic statements aside, has been the only interesting part of this entire primary season. The remaining candidates (Cruz, Rubio, Carson, and Kasich) have been unable to convince the GOP establishment of their ability. That said, the Republican Party establishment has a real impetus now (days before Super Tuesday) to either "select" a suitable alternative to Trump or push more candidates (*cough Carson *cough) to drop out of the race. Unless they do this, Trump has a really good shot at winning. If this was the Democratic Party, I would give a candidate like Trump nearly no chance of a nomination. The GOP has far less control over its primary "process" and Trump is exploiting the hell out of it and must simply outlast his competitors. To make matters worse for the GOP standard bearers, Trump also has the personal wealth to fund a long slog all the way to the convention, setting up a potentially contentious situation.

Chance of Trump Victory: 75%