Even though I once considered myself a John-Kerry-sorta-guy, I became a true believer in the kind of change that was the emblem of the Howard Dean campaign. Between media driven "Kerry frenzy" and less-than-polished performances by Dean himself, Sen. Kerry looks poised (at least at the current moment) to take the Democratic nomination. But before Theresa breaks out the Dom Perignon a word of warning: regardless of the nominee, beating George Bush will be exceedingly difficult. Here are some reasons...
1. Economic Growth--Even though "W" had very little to do with it, the business cycle favors him in a big way.
2. Money--Howard Dean gave us some hope in this area, but John Kerry can only mortgage his assets so many times. George Bush has and will continue to have an advantage in this area.
3. Iraq--Yet another achilles heel for John Kerry. The vote for authorization (for the Iraq invasion) was created for political cover. It looks like Bush might get one more chance to use it. Howard Dean has a different, less popular opinion, but at least it is different.
4. The Gore-Dukakis Combo--Howard Dean is a McGovern-Clinton type candidate: passionate, progressive, and innovative. John Kerry is boring, aloof, and liberal.
The nomination is not wrapped up as far as delegate counts, but that is little comfort. The media, not the average American, will decide who is newsworthy and electable. Our only hope as Democrats (should Kerry prevail) is that when the media is done flirting with the Senator they will not go back to loving Mr. Bush. After all, they had a love affair with Gov. Dean just a few weeks ago. Happy Valentines Day!